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Seeking Alpha 2021-06-09 20:45:03

Bitcoin in backwardation points to a bear market - J.P. Morgan

Vertigo3d/iStock via Getty Images Bitcoin (BTC-USD) moving into backwardation, where the current price is higher than the futures price, is a reason to stay bearish on the crypto, J.P. Morgan says.It's a sign of weak institutional demand at present, strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou write in a note today.In times of normal demand, Bitcoin trades in contango and the "typically high (above 10% annualized) futures to spot spread is likely a function of the high 'risk free' rate of opportunity cost implicit in crypto markets," they say."But when demand is particularly weak and price expectations turn bearish, the futures curve shifts into backwardation," which was the case for most of 2018, Panigirtzoglou adds."We believe that the return of backwardation in recent weeks has been a negative signal pointing to a bear market," they say, adding they "are reluctant to abandon (their) negative outlook" until the spread over spot moves back to

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